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#1 11-08-2017 08:31:03

sherry2018love
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Date d'inscription: 01-08-2017
Messages: 116

The Best and Worst of Marcus Semien

A cursory study of the WAR leaderboards for shortstops in 2015 shows several surprising developments. At the very top, we've the great mixture of defensive and offensive aptitude in Zack Cozart, and the mainly defensive-minded duo of Brandon Crawford (who has surprised at the plate this year) and Andrelton Simmons. Then, where we may expect a name like Ian Desmond or Troy Tulowitzki, we instead have Marcus Semien.
Its only May, so were still dealing with the typical parts of the game that suffer from small sample size i sues when it comes to player comparison and valuation, like BABIP and defensive metrics. Still, theres something about Semien being toward the top boards that warrants our attention: not just may be the As shortstop there due to his offense, hes there despite his defense.
On Sunday, we had both best and worst of him. Lets start with defense. Throughout the bottom of the second, Logan Morrison hit a regular one-hopper up the middle to Semien, who was shifted combined with the rest of the infield. The outcome was one Athletics fans have wearily gotten accustomed to:
That was the 24-year-olds 9th error of the season, briefly tying him with Ian Desmond and Danny Santana for that league lead, that's until he moved into sole having Alex Smith Jersey  first by making another on Monday (he earned one further night too). Should you dont like errors, Semien sits at -1 runs by DRS, good for 20th within the majors.
Finally, UZR/150 casts an even harsher light on him, ranking him dead last of all qualified major league shortstops. Defensive stats are easily skewed this in the year, so we should regre s, regre s, then regre s some more, being careful to sprinkle all of them with grains of salt along the way. Lets look at both UZR/150 and DRS for shortstops this year graphically, therefore we have the data (to be clear, we shouldnt make use of this as a strict comparison between the metrics, more for reference):
Theres really without doubt that Semien continues to be among the worst defensive shortstops in the league: we can view it on a lot of routine plays so we can see it within the data, even when we a sume a lot of noise. Eno wrote about Semien switching from the utility role this past year to shortstop full time in 2015, as well as the general outcomes historically when such a move is made: we dont have a lot of examples, though players who make that transition usually arent great defenders Albert Wilson Jersey  to start with. Semien fits that mold.
There are a couple of main difficulties with Semien defensively in 2015; hes showing poor range within the UZR data weve recycled, and hes making a large amount of mistakes on easy fielding plays (hes only completed 94% of plays cla sified as routine). His throws have never been terrible, and since UZR information is noisy at this time, focusing on those fielding errors might be the best course of action. So, the i sue arises: was Semien always prone to these kinds of obvious fielding mistakes, or should it simply be a poor spell?
Lets return through some old examples. His time at third in 2014 probably gives us the very best comparison, because he went through some rough spots: in 279.1 innings there, he earned just 89.4% of routine plays.
Heres one from late April of last year:
Tough hop, but certainly a play that should be made. Heres another two weeks later, on May 2nd:
Nothing to say of that one, really  simply mi sed it. What about one more, in the morning (May 3rd):
Everyone makes errors outside of a couple of elite guys. And, to be fair, everything looks a lot worse when you stack GIFs of errors back to back to back. But Semien seems prone to making glaring errors on routine plays than most fielders: you expect to determine a couple of of those during a full season from an everyday player, but Semien had these three within the span of fourteen days this past year. Thatbrings me to the next point  the distribution of his errors. Heres a summary of when he made his errors last year (note that Semien was at AAA for most of June/July/August):
April 7thApril10thApril 22ndApril 30thMay 2ndMay 3rdMay 24thMay 26thSeptember 2ndSeptember 9th (3)September 19thSeptember 23rdIf theres this as errors becoming contagious, Semien embodies it. They often clustered together in tight packs, like late April/early May, when things discontinued the rails a little bit. This a minimum of gives hope that his current fielding problemscome and go, which is better than him just being an awful fielder every game of the season. Truly being bad at defense is way harder to fix than stretches of games where his confidence within the field may be temporarily low.
One i sue with attempting to judge Semiens overall defensive capabilities is that our sample sizes just arent big enough to really observe how hell turn out to be a shortstop (if he is allowed to remain there). We know he has shown an inclination Chris Conley Jersey  to create a large amount of mistakes on easy plays wherever he is on the infield, and whether that is an entrenched a part of his game or simply an i sue that could be resolved still remains to be seen. Given the overall malaise from the As defense, its something theyve been attempting to work onbefore games.
What we can be confident was there will probably be further growing pains as Semien is constantly on the discover the position. His range has never been poor by UZR aside from a short stint at second base during 2014, which means this years current negative marks could prove to be a month of examples that bucked the overall trend after we have a couple years price of data to work with.
Then theres another part of his game. If we consider the shortstop leaderboards, well see Semien just behind Zack Cozart in wRC+, at 145. Hes sporting an ISO of .204, and, despite the fact that hes still not walking around anyonewould like (his walk rate has actually decreased from 8.2% this past year to six.1% this season), his slugging is currently creating for this. To put it simply, hes crushing the ball this year. Lets return to Sunday: within the third inning, he did this to a middle-middle first-pitch fastball from Felix Hernandez:
Then, in the sixth inning, he did this to le s middle, more inside fastball against the King:
No one has hit two home runs from Hernandez in the same game since 2012 (Gordon Beckham, seriously down), and, although the second barely got out, its was an impre sive offensive day. That accomplishment should at the minimum make us pay attention to some positive trends in Semiens approach and execution while at bat.
Lets first start by taking a glance at some select plate discipline stats between this past year and this year to obtain an idea of his regions of improvement (Semien only played 21 games in 2013 as a September call-up, so Im likely to leave that year out):
SeasonO-Swing%Z-Contact%Contact%SwStr%201427.7%86.2%78.3%8.8%201523.5%91.4%81.7%7.7%Lots of products stand out. Good things. His O-Swing% is down, further below league average of computer was, showing he could have an improving feeling of the strike zone. His Z-Contact% is way up and well above league average, so hes hitting pitches that you would like to become hitting. And lastly, his Swinging Strike% can also be down, confirming both of those previous figures.
Before we go further, whats slightly strange about Semien is the fact that his swing Anthony Sherman Jersey  rate hasnevermatched up well together with his high strikeout rate  in other words, he strikesout looking a lot. He struck out looking 30% of times this past year; league average was 24.6%. His rate this year is simply under league average, despite the fact that his swing rate went down slightly, which could also indicate a much better understanding of the zone.
That being said, his O-Swing and contact improvements also have translated into his rate stats. Semien is striking out 6% le s overall than he was this past year, and his hard hit rate has jumped to just about 32%, putting him 6th among qualified shortstops. The ability output seems to have improved around the back of the 13.3% HR/FB rate, which would seem due for regre sion if he wasnt now hitting his average fly ball sevenfeet further than he was this past year (271 vs. 278).
Finally, hes running. His six steals in 35 games happen to be double what he manufactured in 64 games last year, and he hasnt been caught since 2013. Thats the main reason he currently leads all shortstops within our Ultimate Base Running metric, also it would add another level to his set of skills.
Its still mid-May. We havent seen a complete year of Semien, so we dont actually have a fully-formed concept of who he truly is. This might just be a very hot streak, and once his BABIP regre ses and that he cools off, he may return to striking out 25% of the time with a little little bit of pop. But hes only 24, showing plate discipline and phone rate strides, and the minor league numbers point toward a more disciplined approach than we had in 2014.
Being relatively recent towards the majors, there are always going to be growing pains: we have seen that from Semien within the field. Whether he sticks at shortstop long-term is a big question mark at this time. However, were also seeing what looks to be a developing offensive a set at a position which has not many of those, and thats worth taking note of.

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